The Biden administration has determined a Russian effort is underway to create a pretext for its troops to potentially further invade Ukraine, and Moscow has already prepositioned operatives to conduct “a false-flag operation” in eastern Ukraine, White House press secretary Jen Psaki detailed Friday.


What You Need To Know

  • The Biden administration has determined that Russia is "laying the groundwork to have the option of fabricating a pretext for invasion," including pre-positioning "a group of operatives to conduct a false flag operation in eastern Ukraine," White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Friday

  • Russia has repeatedly denied that it has plans to invade Ukraine

  • The new U.S. intelligence was unveiled after a series of talks between Russia and the U.S. and western allies this week in Europe aimed at heading off the escalating crisis made little progress

The administration believes Russia is also laying the groundwork through a social media disinformation campaign by framing Ukraine as an aggressor that has been preparing an imminent attack against Russian forces in eastern Ukraine.

"We are concerned that the Russian government is preparing for an invasion in Ukraine that may result in widespread human rights violations and war crimes, should diplomacy fail to meet their objectives," Psaki said at a White House press briefing on Friday. "As part of its plans, Russia is laying the groundwork to have the option of fabricating a pretext for invasion, and we've seen this before.

U.S. intelligence officials have determined Russia has already dispatched operatives trained in urban warfare who could use explosives to carry out acts of sabotage against Russia’s own proxy forces — blaming the acts on Ukraine — if Russian President Vladimir Putin decides he wants to move forward with an invasion, the official added.

"We have information that indicates Russia has already pre-positioned a group of operatives to conduct a false flag operation in eastern Ukraine," Psaki added. "The operatives are trained in urban warfare and in using explosives to carry out acts of sabotage against Russia's own proxy forces."

"Our information also indicates that Russian influence actors are already starting to fabricate Ukrainian provocations in state and social media to justify a Russian intervention and sew divisions in Ukraine," she added.

An official said the White House had not notified Ukraine before announcing Friday’s release. Russia has repeatedly denied that it has plans to invade Ukraine.

Ukraine is also monitoring the alleged use of disinformation by Russia. Separately, Ukrainian media on Friday reported that authorities believed Russian special services were planning a possible false flag incident that could be seen as provoking additional conflict.

The new U.S. intelligence was unveiled after a series of talks between Russia and the U.S. and western allies this week in Europe aimed at heading off the escalating crisis made little progress. But the fact that Russia’s delegation did not walk out of the talks and remained open to the prospect of future discussions after having its main positions rebuffed were seen as positive notes.

The United States and NATO rejected key Russian security demands for easing tensions over Ukraine but left open Thursday the possibility of future talks with Moscow on arms control, missile deployments and ways to prevent military incidents between Russia and the West.

The U.S. and its allies are "ready either way" should Russia comply with their requests, national security adviser Jake Sullivan said during a White House press briefing Thursday.

"We continue to work with allies and NATO on changes in force posture and capabilities, especially on NATO's eastern flank," Sullivan added. "We have been very clear with Russia on the costs and consequences of further military action or destabilization in Ukraine."

The U.S. would like to continue with diplomacy, Sullivan added, but said there are no planned dates for future talks. 

Sullivan also responded to recent comments from Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, who on Thursday said he could “neither confirm nor exclude” the possibility of Russia sending military assets to Latin America if the U.S. and its allies don’t curtail their military activities on Russia’s doorstep.

"That wasn't raised in discussions at the strategic stability dialog," Sullivan said, calling Ryabkov's comments "bluster" and nothing more. "If Russia were to move in that direction we would deal with it decisively."

Sullivan said Russia is laying the groundwork to invade under false pretenses should Putin decide to go that route. He said the Russians have been planning “sabotage activities and information operations” that accuse Ukraine of prepping for its own imminent attack against Russian forces in Eastern Ukraine.

Sullivan said that the move is similar to what the Kremlin did in the leadup to Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula that had been under Ukraine’s jurisdiction since 1954.

The Crimea crisis came at moment when Ukraine was increasingly looking to strengthen ties with Europe and the West. Russia stepped up propaganda that Ukraine’s ethnic Russians were being oppressed in Eastern Ukraine.

Russia has long been accused of using disinformation as a tactic against adversaries in conjunction with military operations and cyberattacks. In 2014, Russian state media tried to discredit pro-Western protests in Kyiv as “fomented by the U.S. in cooperation with fascist Ukrainian nationalists” and promoted narratives about Crimea’s historical ties to Moscow, according to a report by Stanford University’s Internet Observatory.

Efforts to directly influence Ukrainians appear to have continued during the ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine in which at least 14,000 people have died. The Associated Press reported in 2017 that Ukrainian forces in the east were constantly receiving text messages warning that they would be killed and their children would be made orphans.

U.S. intelligence community has taken note of a buildup on social media by Russian influencers justifying intervention by emphasizing deteriorating human rights in Ukraine, suggesting an increased militancy of Ukrainian leaders and blaming the West for escalating tensions.

“We saw this playbook in 2014,” Sullivan told reporters on Thursday. “They are preparing this playbook again.”

The Russians, while maintaining they don’t plan to invade Ukraine, are demanding that the U.S. and NATO provide written guarantees that the alliance will not expand eastward. The U.S. has called such demands nonstarters but said that it’s willing to negotiate with Moscow about possible future deployments of offensive missiles in Ukraine and putting limits on U.S. and NATO military exercises in Eastern Europe.

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned on Friday that Moscow wouldn’t wait indefinitely for the Western response, saying he expects the U.S. and NATO to provide a written answer next week.

Lavrov described Moscow’s demands for binding guarantees that NATO will not embrace Ukraine or any other former Soviet nations, or station its forces and weapons there as essential for the progress of diplomatic efforts to defuse soaring tensions over Ukraine.

He argued that NATO’s deployments and drills near Russia’s borders pose a security challenge that must be addressed immediately.

“We have run out of patience,” Lavrov said at a news conference. “The West has been driven by hubris and has exacerbated tensions in violation of its obligations and common sense.”