“Every politician looks in the mirror and sees a future president," says Liz Mair, a Republican consultant -- one whom hopefully would remain as refreshingly candid even if she were working for a candidate this election cycle (she isn’t). 

Her sentiment isn’t entirely new – politicians’ irrepressibly high egos often cloud their political viability. 

In this case, Mair was pinning the adage on Chris Christie, who is set to launch his second White House bid on Tuesday. 

But the notion could just as easily stick to another pair opening their long-shot campaigns this week: Former Vice President Mike Pence, who is set to launch his campaign on Wednesday in Iowa, eclipsing – if that were possible – the kickoff of Doug Burgum, governor of North Dakota, who's expected to mount his own White House bid the same day. 

Here, caveats are called for. Politics is too often drearily scripted, but sometimes surprises creep in – and sometimes even in a row. At this point 16 and 8 years ago, few could have predicted the nominations of Barack Obama and Donald Trump, respectively. 

Christie, a two-term governor of New Jersey, lost handily to Trump in the 2016 New Hampshire primary. He then endorsed Trump, despite referring to him a month earlier as a “carnival barker.”

Vouching for him repeatedly, Christie was reportedly on the short list to be Trump’s running mate. Passed over for Pence, after Trump bested Hillary Clinton, Christie ran his White House transition before Trump sidelined him after two former Christie aides were convicted of shutting down lanes on the George Washington Bridge as political retaliation. 

That was then.

Apparently convinced of Trump’s unsuitability after the insurrection at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, Christie now calls him a “coward,” vowing to never support him again. He’s expected to tap into his well-worn New Jersey attitude and campaign as the most anti-Trump candidate in the Republican field.

He's argued anything less than a full break with Trump will doom the GOP in the general election, saying recently: “If the choice in this primary is between Trump, and 'Trump Lite,' Trump wins."

It may promise some debate stage voltage – if Trump even debates – but overall it's a curious strategy given three-quarters of Republicans say they want Trump to be president again, according to a March poll from NPR/PBS NewsHour and Marist.

"I think there are a lot of effective ways to take on Donald Trump and to take Donald Trump down that do not entail getting into the race yourself," Mair said. "But Chris Christie is in the race himself. And I think that this is about Chris Christie and his ego more than anything else.”

Christie’s camp didn’t return requests for comment on Mair’s observation. 

If Christie replays his Jersey bombast, count on Pence for midwestern nice. His pitch is claiming deep involvement in Trump’s record – tax cuts, Supreme Court seats – while breaking with Trump’s plot to stay in office despite losing the 2020 election.

Christie has brushed with other scandals, like hitting a state beach when a government shutdown barred everyone else. But Christie won high marks for steering New Jersey through the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, and won fans for mixing it up with detractors.

Pence’s is a curious strategy, considering the grip Trump’s electoral falsehoods retain on the GOP. 

A March poll from CNN/SSRS found a majority Republican and Republican-leaning independents think Biden was illegitimately elected, even as the share claiming fraud has diminished. (There was no evidence of widespread fraud and numerous recounts, audits and court rulings have certified Biden’s win). 

Mair calls Pence “very upright, ethical person in terms of his own personal behavior,” but flatly notes: “Mike Pence has no trajectory here.”

Finally, a note about Bergum. While lacking Christie or Pence’s national profile, he bests them in self-made fortunes. Son of the little town of Arthur, N. Dakota, Burgum mortgaged the family farm to join a startup that he would sell to Microsoft for $1.1 billion. 

A shrewd bet then, the odds of his presidential success now seem far longer.

Even Mair had to look him up – and, she says, “I do this for a living.”