Control of the U.S. House next year could run through New York, after redistricting made the state home to several competitive congressional races this midterm season.
Nationwide, Republicans need to pick up just five seats to win control of the House — and New York is home to several opportunities. Races on Long Island, in the Hudson Valley and in the Syracuse area are competitive this year, with the margins expected to be tight.
That gives voters here an outsized voice they are not necessarily accustomed to.
“I think a lot of voters in New York, specifically in the Hudson Valley region, sometimes feel like their votes don't matter — New York being such an overwhelmingly blue state,” said Jack Whitman, a student at Marist College.
Among the most high-profile contests can be found in New York’s 17th district, where the Democrat leading efforts to keep his party in control of the House — Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney - is in a fight for his own political life, facing an influx of outside spending on behalf of his opponent.
“New York is important - you better believe it. We are on the front lines here,” said Maloney, who chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Over on Long Island, three of four congressional seats are open. Incumbent Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin is making a bid for governor instead, while incumbent Democrats Tom Suozzi and Kathleen Rice are leaving Congress.
That leaves only Andrew Garbarino - a Republican representing New York’s 2nd district - looking to keep his job on Capitol Hill.
“The majority could be determined in New York state alone. It’s very exciting,” he said.
Of course, it was not always supposed to be this way. An earlier version of New York’s congressional map, drawn by Democrats, gave the party a few easy pick-up opportunities across the state and did not put them on the defensive in so many areas. That map, though, was thrown out in court. The judges ruled Democrats violated the state constitution, crafting a partisan gerrymander and bypassing an independent redistricting commission in the process.
The court instead appointed an outside expert to draw the lines, transforming New York from a state where Democrats could compensate for losses elsewhere in the country into a place where they could hemorrhage seats instead.
Candidates in these contests say they are well aware of the stakes, as the outcome of their races could have national consequences.
“There’s tons of pressure, especially when I talk to folks like you who keep reminding me of it all the time,” said George Santos, a Republican running to represent New York’s 3rd district.
“The struggle to save American democracy is running straight through NY-1,” said Bridget Fleming, the Democratic candidate in New York’s 1st district.
