Republicans made big inroads in New York in 2022, winning several congressional races in Democratic-leaning districts.
The GOP now controls six congressional seats in New York districts that went for Joe Biden in 2020. Four of the six, Biden won by 7 percentage points or more, according to data compiled by The New York Times.
Almost immediately after their wins, many of those victorious Republicans had electoral targets on their backs, with Democrats eager to the flip them back to the blue column in 2024.
Just weeks after the election, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries described them as seats “Republicans are renting, not owning.”
And in December, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer issued a warning, saying, “A good number of the non-MAGA Republicans, including some who won in New York … realize that if they follow a MAGA direction, they’re going to lose.”
In interviews with Spectrum News, several of those Republicans were upfront about the fine line they will have to walk.
“I recognize that I serve in a district that’s pretty well-balanced, I’m pretty well-balanced,” said Rep. Marc Molinaro, who represents New York’s 19th District, a seat Biden would have carried by 4.6% in 2020.
“I was elected in Nassau County, where Democrats outnumber Republicans at least for now. You’re not going to continue to serve if you are far to the right or far to the left,” said Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, whose district would have gone for Biden by 14.6% in 2020.
Rep. Mike Lawler, who flipped a seat just north of the Big Apple in a district Biden won by roughly 10 points, argued cooperation requires give and take from both sides. He has already introduced bipartisan legislation aimed at raising the cap on the state and local tax deduction, better known as SALT.
“Everybody has to understand, when it comes to bipartisanship and working together, it’s a two-way street. It is not just a one-way street,” he said.
Already, several of these members have shown a willingness to break ranks, notably over their embattled Republican colleague George Santos, who also won a Biden district. One by one, they have called for Santos to resign while House GOP leadership so far has not.
Otherwise, their voting records so far show these Republicans largely staying in line with the GOP, voting to, for example, rescind Democratic investments at the Internal Revenue Service, kick Rep. Ilhan Omar off of a key House committee, and limit drawdowns from the strategic petroleum reserve.
It remains to be seen if they will be a moderating force on the conservative tilt of the Republican majority.
Rep. Pat Ryan, now the sole Democrat representing the Hudson Valley who himself is in a competitive district, expressed concern that the bipartisan cooperation will not be there.
“We have to hold people accountable, myself included, for what we campaigned on, and then actually make sure that we deliver on it,” said Ryan, who represents New York’s 18th District.
Cook Political Report, which rates elections, recently weighed in with early 2024 predictions, declaring many of these contests toss-ups with two notable exceptions. They rate Rep Nick LaLota’s seat on Long Island 'likely Republican' and Santos’ seat 'lean Democrat.