Is Joe Manchin the James Comey of the 2021 elections?

That’s what some are suggesting: That by announcing problems with fellow Democrats’ spending plans at a fiery news conference the day before Election Day, the West Virginia moderate all but handed his party a series of losses or close races – especially in Virginia’s gubernatorial race.

"There are lots of reasons why a candidate doesn't win, but at the end of the day, there's usually a straw that breaks the camel's back," said Jennifer Lawless, chair of the political science department at the University of Virginia. And in this case, I think it was Joe Manchin’s press conference."

Though it won’t reach the same level of exhaustive post-mortem analysis as the FBI director’s role in Hillarty Clinton’s 2016 loss to Donald Trump, Republican triumphs Tuesday are unleashing a number of examinations.

The GOP won in Virginia and Democrat Phil Murphy eked out a win New Jersey’s governor’s race -- both states that Joe Biden won handily last year. Democrats also had poor showings in key suburban races on Long Island, filling party poohbahs with dread for the 2022 midterms.

“I'm waiting to get numbers from around the country to see what Democratic dog catchers lost in their local elections,” said Lawrence Levy, executive dean at the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University.

There are many factors in any given race, but Congressional action or inaction was often cited in interviews Tuesday. 

Democrats are still negotiating a deal for the “Build Back Better” spending plan, a vote on which House progressives say would unlock their support for a $1 trillion infrastructure bill that’s already passed the Senate.

Manchin has emerged as the face of resistance, objecting to the price tag and social safety net expansion. Asked about the elections, he said Wednesday such a “mammoth” bill requires time.

“I just think that the message was really sent: If we're going to do something, let's take time and do it right. Let's make sure that people know what's in it,” he told reporters.

The standoff has no doubt helped pop President Joe Biden’s once-respectable approval ratings, contributing to a sense that Democrats can’t be trusted.

“They're negotiating with each other, going up to the various cliff, playing chicken with each other,” said Benjamin Dworkin, director of the Institute for Public Policy & Citizenship and Rowan University in Glassboro, New Jersey.

“When it doesn't get done, why should anyone believe that any Democrat can get things done? The Democrats are the party of dysfunction, which was not the purpose, which was not what they got elected on.”

But to carry the poultry metaphor further, there’s something of a chicken and an egg conundrum in Biden’s poll numbers. He may have low poll numbers because Democrats can’t get things done – but Democrats’ extremely narrow majorities in Congress means they have basically no room to maneuver.

There’s also a Catch-22 quality to COVID and inflation, which also no doubt had voters pull the lever for the GOP. The pandemic disrupted supply chains, leading to shortages that are causing costs to rise. Masks and vaccines are a way to curb the spread of the virus and return life to normal. Yet those same measures have infuriated people in ways that other diseases never did. 

And those who are infuriated came out to vote, including in New Jersey, Dworkin said.

“The people who wanted to blame the governor because they were frustrated with COVID – they were the ones who came to the polls,” he said. In some respects, that motivator may have helped replace the enthusiasm some had for Trump, who of course wasn’t on the ballot -- whereas those comfortable with mandates and restrictions didn’t necessarily flock to the polls.

At the same time, some might argue that it’s time for greater (maskless) normalcy – especially with children now poised to get vaccinated.

While others argue that progressives need to scale back their plans; progressives have countered that programs they champion – expanded Medicare benefits, paid family leave – are popular. There has also long been talk of ending the filibuster to usher in federal voting rights protections – which currently also doesn’t have the votes among Democratic senators, as proven on Wednesday, when Republicans blocked their second voting rights bill in two weeks, and fourth this year alone.

Levy, the expert on suburbs, says that the multi-trillion dollar price tag for the original spending bill gave Americans’ sticker shock. What’s more, the social issues the left champions alienate centrist voters who a year ago flocked to Biden.

“Lines that get rave applause on the Lower East Side of Manhattan send shivers up and down the spines of independent swing voters on Long Island,” said Levy. 

“Defunding the police. Waving the socialist banner. Critical race theory," Levy listed. "These are all fodder for the Republican messaging machine, and they have a very good one.”

Race – and teaching race – played a key role in Virginia’s election.

The winner, Republican Glenn Youngkin, seized parents’ sense that schools weren’t beholden to parents’ concerns. He seized on “critical race theory,” which is defined as centered “on the idea that racism is systemic in the nation’s institutions and that they function to maintain the dominance of white people in society.”

There’s no evidence found that critical race theory is widely taught in Virginia, but it made its way to the Republican’s successful pitch. 

“The thing that stands out really is the way in which the Republican Party is so willing to weaponize conversations or conversations around race and racism to mobilize their base,” said Adrianne Shropshire, executive director of BlackPAC, which tries to mobilize and engage Black voters. 

“At some point Democrats have to decide that they are comfortable engaging in those conversations in a nuanced way and in a sustained way. Because at the end of the day, the Republican campaigns, the Republican Party is going to have a conversation about race.”

A Republican in Virginia made history Tuesday, however: Winsome Sears, a Jamaican immigrant and former Marine, will become the first woman and person of color to hold statewide office in what was once the headquarters of the Confederacy. 

The analyses of what happened Tuesday will continue --  with Republicans looking to replicate the playbook and Democrats seeking rehabilitation. New issues no doubt will guide voters. Come twelve months from now, what Joe Manchin said on a Monday in November 2021 may be a distant memory.