The MTA's tentative contract agreement with its largest union would raise the pay of nearly 37,000 transit workers by 9.8 percent over four years. That's more than the cash-strapped agency budgeted - raising new questions about its finances.

"Can the MTA afford raises that average 2.3 percent a year, a little bit higher than inflation? Well, not really. The MTA is broke," said Nicole Gelinas, of the Manhattan Institute.

Even after budgeting for annual raises of 2 percent, the MTA projected it would face an annual operating deficit of nearly a half billion dollars by 2023. The tentative contract threatens to make that chasm even larger.

"I have a 17 billion dollar budget. I think I can handle 22 million dollars of potentially excess cost," said Bob Foran, CFO of the MTA.

Bob Foran, the MTA's chief financial officer, projects that the contract would increase the agency's expenses by about 22 million a year, but he says that's money the sprawling MTA can easily find through efficiencies.

However, that assumes the MTA realizes other savings it negotiated as part of the contract, including an increase in worker co-pays for non-generic drugs and emergency room visits, and a pledge by the union to help reduce worker absences and overtime. Those measures are supposed to save 44 million dollars a year.

"We feel comfortable we're gonna get there. At least there, if not more,” said Foran.

"Budget watchdogs say that if the MTA fails to trim its costs and needs revenue to fill a budget gap, the only options available are fare hikes and service cuts."

Some members of the Transport Workers Union believe leadership should have gotten a better deal. Kimberly McLaurin, a single mother of three who works as a train operator, says the planned raises are too puny.

"The wages is not keeping up with the price of living, the cost of food for four people, my rent. Their school, clothes," said Kimberly McLaurin, a train operator.

McLaurin is one of four members of the union's 49-member executive board who opposed tentative contract. But the TWU's top officials believe the dissidents represent a minority of the workforce, and that the contract will be overwhelmingly approved when the rank and file vote on the deal.