With every member of the House of Representatives and New York's state legislature up for re-election this year, one big question now is how Donald Trump will affect the dynamic of those races closer to home. Many Democrats expect the Trump factor to work to their advantage, but as Bobby Cuza explains, Republicans are quickly rallying around their new standard-bearer.
One big question now is how Trump will affect the dynamic of down-ballot legislative races.
Democrats are hoping Trump will prove damaging to their Republican opponents, who may be forced to distance themselves from his more divisive rhetoric. However, there are early signs the Republican establishment is quickly closing ranks around its presumptive nominee, even here in heavily Democratic New York.
"Republican candidates are in a vice," said Congressman Steve Israel, a Democrat from Long Island. "They have to make a choice. Do they stand with Trump, and some of the ridiculous and really hurtful things that he's said, and lose moderates and women and others in their districts? Or do they disavow Trump and lose their base?"
"Donald Trump, he is a genius at messaging," said Republican Ed Cox." And I have complete confidence that he is going to give a good general message that is going to resonate in a general election campaign."
Not all Republicans are rallying to Trump; a spokesman for former Governor George Pataki said in a statement:
"Trump needs to change his position on deporting 11 million Latinos to earn Governor Pataki's support."
And prominent Republican consultant Bill O’Reilly announced in an op-ed column Wednesday he was leaving the party rather than join with Trump, calling him a reckless and irresponsible choice.
Nowhere do Republicans have more to lose than the state senate, where if Trump were to help cost them even one seat—like the one being vacated by the retiring Hugh Farley — it could flip control to the Democrats, who already have a numeric majority in the body.
"I think the opposite, as a matter of fact," said Marty Golden, a Republican Senator. "I think Donald Trump will bring a tremendous number of people to the polls, bring new people out to the polls.”
Despite his boasts to the contrary, it seems highly unlikely Trump can win New York State, where Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than two to one. As for his impact on other races, it is mostly a non-issue here in New York City, where there are few elected Republicans to begin with. Perhaps the most prominent, Congressman Dan Donovan of Staten Island is not facing a particularly strong challenge this year.
But elsewhere, like in Long Island Congressman Lee Zeldin’s district, Democrats were already tying him to Trump.