NY1/Baruch College Poll: Trump Leads Rivals by 43 Percentage Points

Donald Trump has a commanding 43-point lead in the New York Republican presidential primary, and Hillary Clinton has a 13-point advantage in the Democratic primary, according to a NY1/Baruch College poll released Monday night.

Running in his home state, Trump is supported by 60 percent of likely Republican voters, the poll found. Ohio Gov. John Kasich and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas trail far behind with 17 percent and 14 percent, respectively.

"Trump is just killing it," said Baruch College pollster Mickey Blum.

Trump's support in the April 19 primary is widespread, the poll found.

"Every demographic group goes for him," said Baruch College pollster Doug Muzzio. "Every geographic group, every socio-economic group. And with large majorities.  Cruz ain't doing it. And Kasich ain't doing it."

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It means Trump is in a position to possibly sweep all 95 delegates up for grabs. To do that, he must win at least 50 percent of the primary vote in every one of New York’s 27 congressional districts. Otherwise, the top finisher in a district wins two delegates and the runner-up gets one.

Such a haul would put him back on a path toward winning the nomination after his loss to Cruz in last week's Wisconsin primary.

"This could really be his road to getting enough to win it outright before he ever gets to that convention," Blum said.

As for the Democratic fight, Hillary Clinton is comfortably ahead of U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont in the state she represented in the Senate for eight years - but her lead is far smaller than Trump's.

The poll shows 50 percent of likely primary voters back Clinton, and 37 percent support Sanders.

Voters under 30 are overwhelmingly in Sanders' corner. While more than two-thirds of voters over 65 support Clinton. Clinton beats Sanders in every region of the state but they are closest in New York City.

In a general election, Clinton or Sanders beat Trump in New York. Our poll found Clinton winning 51 percent to 35 percent. Sanders would trounce Trump even more decisively: 54 percent to 32 percent.

Those results may be fueled in part by New Yorkers' opinions of the candidates. Nearly 60 percent of state voters have an unfavorable view of Trump. A plurality of voters also has an unfavorable view of Clinton. Sanders does better.

Our poll did find that Trump's supporters are also loyal. If he fails to become the Republican nominee, a majority say want him to run for president as a third-party candidate.

The poll, which was conducted April 5-10, randomly sampled 1,597 adults in New York State, including 1306 registered voters, of whom 632 were likely Democratic Primary voters and 324 were likely Republican Primary voters. 859 landline telephone interviews and 738 cell phone interviews were conducted. 

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.8 percentage points in the Republican primary, 4.2 percentage points in the Democratic race, and 2.9 percentage points in the general election. 

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