Three months after the mayor and the City Council overturned the city’s term-limits law, an exclusive NY1 poll shows that 57 percent of New Yorkers disapprove of the move. In addition, 46 percent of those polled say they think less of the mayor because of his handling of the term-limits issue. The poll also shows that, by far, the economy is the biggest issue on the minds of city voters while 59 percent of New Yorkers disapprove of the city’s financial agreements with the Yankees and the Mets.

POLL RESULTS

1. Which one of the following issues is most important to you as you decide for whom to vote for mayor?

2. Which one of the following qualities is most important to you in deciding for whom to vote for mayor?

3. In October, the NY City Council extended term limits so that Mayor Bloomberg and other city officials, including the City Council, could run for a third consecutive four-year term. Do you approve or disapprove of this extension of term limits from two terms to three terms by the City Council?

4. Has Mayor Bloomberg’s handling of the term limits issue made you think?

ANALYSIS

Term Limits

New York City voters still don’t like the City Council’s extension of term limits.

By a 20-point margin, 57 percent to 37 percent, voters disapprove of the term limits extension which allows Mayor Bloomberg to run for a third term.

There are some differences by group on this issue with Manhattan and Queens voters, wealthy voters, and elderly voters divided on the issue, and Jewish voters in favor of term limits.

While most of those who say they will vote for the mayor also support the bill, about a third of the Mayor’s voters don’t approve of the bill. Seen another way, that means that about a quarter of those who oppose the bill say they would vote for Bloomberg’s third term against either of his top Democratic opponents.

Current opposition to the bill is stronger than we saw just before the City Council vote last fall , when voters were more divided, 50 percent opposed to 44 percent in favor. While term limits would seem to be an opening for the Mayor’s Democratic opponents, it is important to note that only two percent of voters consider term limits the most important factor in their vote for Mayor in 2009.

The mayor’s handling of the term limits issue has made almost half the city’s voters think less of the mayor.

Three times as many New Yorkers (46%) think less of the Mayor compared to those who think more of him (13%) based on his handling of term limits. Thirty five percent say it has made no difference. This is again a much more negative view than we saw last fall, when only 29 percent thought less of the mayor, 21 percent thought more of him and 46 percent said it made no difference.

However, about half of those who think less of the mayor because of his handling of the issue approve of the Mayor and about quarter plan to vote for him.

Mayoral Issues: It’s the Economy…and Education

The economy is the most important issue on voters’ minds as they decide whom to support for mayor in 2009, and that is an issue that currently favors a vote for Mayor Bloomberg.

Forty-one percent of voters say jobs and the economy will be most important to their vote, with education the choice of 19 percent. No other issue reaches double digits.

The economy is the choice of a plurality of every group

Most of the voters for whom the economy is paramount say they would vote for Michael Bloomberg over Anthony Weiner (51% Bloomberg vs 30% Weiner) or Bill Thompson (50% Bloomberg vs. 31% Thompson).

Although Mayor Bloomberg told New Yorkers he should be judged on how well he did in improving NYC schools, those who care most about education are more likely to favor either Democratic candidate over the mayor (51% Weiner vs. 33% Bloomberg, 45% Thompson vs 37% Bloomberg).

Mayoral Qualities Sound Like Mayor Bloomberg

New Yorkers are divided on the one quality that will be most important to their vote for mayor, but the qualities selected by most voters would seem to favor Bloomberg.

Leadership and management skills (26%), understanding of economics(23%), and experience (16%) are three of the four top qualities, and voters who selected those qualities also selected Bloomberg over both Democratic contenders.

Whether the candidate “cares about people like me” me favors the Democrat in both match-ups, and it is most important to black voters. Having new ideas trails in the ranking of qualities at nine percent.

Yankees & Mets

In a question asked before the news that the costs of recreational facilities that are part of the Yankee Stadium deal have increased by $78.6 million, New Yorkers resoundingly disapproved of the deals the city had made with the Yankees and the Mets by a ratio of 4:1.

The stadium deals are issues which help both Democrats in their match-ups with the mayor.

Overall, 59 percent of New Yorkers disapproved of the deals compared to only 14 percent who approved, and 27 percent who were undecided or could not answer. Of those with an opinion on the issue, more than four times as many New Yorkers disapproved.

METHODOLOGY

This telephone poll of a random sample of 705 New York City residents (including 535 registered voters), was conducted for NY1 by Baruch College Survey Research, from January 20-25,2009. Questions about the choice for Senate were asked of 33 registered voters from January 23-25, 2009. Questionnaire development and analysis by Micheline Blum and Douglas Muzzio of Baruch College, School of Public Affairs.

The sample was based on an RDD design which draws numbers from all existing telephone exchanges in the five boroughs of New York City, giving all phone numbers, listed and unlisted, a proportionate chance of being included. Respondents were randomly selected within the household, and offered the option of being interviewed in Spanish. The overall sample results were weighted demographically and geographically to population data. The estimated average sample tolerance for data from the survey is +/- 3.7 percentage points for the full sample and +/-4.3% for registered voters, and 5.4% for the Senate selection questions at the 95% confidence level. That is, the chances are about 19 out of 20 that if all households with telephones were surveyed with the same questionnaire, the results of the complete census would not be found to deviate from the poll findings by more than 3.7 points for all adults, 4.3 points (or 5.4%) for all voters . Sampling error for subgroups is higher. Differences among subgroups not noted above should not be used. Sampling is only one source of error. Other sources of error may include question wording, question order and interviewer effects.