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The Straphangers Campaign commissioned an analysis by the city's Independent Budget Office. According to the report, any increase will drive people away from the system, meaning lower ridership – forcing the MTA would actually have to raise fares by 28 percent in order to yield a 23 percent increase in revenue.

Applied evenly across all fare categories, that would mean a base fare of at least $2.50, with the cost of a weekly unlimited-ride MetroCard going up to $32, a 14-day card going up to $60, and a monthly going to $104.

"The goal here was to really give people an idea of what fares and tolls could rise to under the plan the MTA put forward," said Doug Turetsky of the New York City Budget Office.

The process is complicated by the fact that MetroCard vending machines cannot dispense change any smaller than a quarter, meaning any increase in the base fare must come in 25-cent increments.

The 23 percent fare increase is part of the proposed 2009 budget the MTA board is expected to approve next week.

Still, the MTA is hopeful that the size of that fare hike can be scaled back – if lawmakers act on the recommendations of the Ravitch Commission, released late last week, which include a payroll tax and new tolls on the East River bridges.

Rider advocates are asking the governor and state legislature to come to the rescue before hikes take effect in June.

"You know, if Albany sits back and says, 'Well, there really isn't a big problem, the MTA doesn't deserve the money,' it's not the MTA that's going to suffer. It's the riders," said Gene Russianoff of the Straphangers Campaign.

The MTA will hold public hearings on the fare hike beginning next month.