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For years, teachers and advocates have said that before a school ends up on the closure list, the Department of Education gives it more and more students with high needs. On Wednesday, the city's Independent Budget Office released a report with numbers to back that up.

Schools often see an increase in special education and low income students right before being marked for closure. On average, 18 percent of students at the high schools at risk for closing are special education students -- six percent more than high schools not on the closure list.

There was also a slight increase of special education students at closing elementary and middle schools, which had 16 percent, compared to the other city schools with 15 percent.

Both closing high, elementary and middle schools also had higher percentages of low-income students, compared to non-closing schools.

At high schools that are set to close, 63 percent of the students, on average, are low-income students, compared to 52 percent at other schools.

The IBO finds that 72 percent of students, on average, are low income at the elementary and middle schools set for closure. That's compared to 68 percent at other schools.

The DOE continues to defend the closures, saying not all of those schools fail and that some have been able to "beat the odds" by getting large numbers of challenged students to graduate. Officials say they want to create more of those schools.

An internal report obtained Wednesday by NY1 shows only one large high school -- Harry Truman in the Bronx -- has been able to succeed with a high percentage of needy students.

It suggests a school's odds of success depend overwhelmingly on how many low-performing students it's given through the high school admissions process.

It also turns out the DOE privately predicts the graduation rate for every high school based on incoming students' scores and demographics. So it knows which schools are likely to fail -- mostly large high schools like Paul Robeson, JFK and Jamaica.

The teachers union president gave another example on Wednesday.

"DeWitt Clinton High School. The last large high school on the west side of the Bronx has been hit by a surge of high needs students," said United Federation of Teachers President Michael Mulgrew. "Between 2005 and 2010 the special education population has increased 37 percent. The homeless population has increased 350 percent. There are 700 English language learners and over 620 students in special education."

Mulgrew says he expects to see Clinton on a closure list soon.

DOE officials say that's because the only thing that works is to close those large schools and open new, smaller schools in their place.

"By implementing a strategy like this we could get very different outcomes," said Deputy Schools Chancellor Marc Sternberg.

It's true many of the new small schools have produced higher graduation rates. But what officials won't say is whether the system is set up to doom the older, larger schools from the start.

In response to the IBO report, the city released the following statement:

"Our reform efforts are absolutely focused on our students that need the most help, and independent research shows new small schools that replace large failing schools serve more disadvantaged students on average and help these students graduate at higher rates."

The city has been holding public hearings on each school closure this month before an education panel vote is held next week.