Saturday, December 20, 2014

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NY1 Political Director Bob Hardt's daily look Inside City Hall.

NY1 ItCH: The Uber-Poll Of The Mayor's Race

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So many poll numbers, so little time before Primary Day.

With the release of a Siena college poll this morning and an amNewYork poll last night – along with data from Quinnipiac University earlier this week – political heads are spinning.

But a picture is emerging from the trio of polls: Bill de Blasio is clearly in first place with Thompson slightly leading Christine Quinn for second place.

I've done a very un Nate Silver-y thing and averaged the numbers from the three polls, creating the ItCH Uber-poll. While this is somewhat unscientific because I'm giving the polls equal weight, here's what we come up with: de Blasio, 32.3%; Thompson, 20.67%; Quinn, 18.3%; Weiner, 9.67%; Liu, 4.67%.

Those numbers feel right. De Blasio is still a large way from getting the magic 40% to avoid a runoff while Thompson is edging Quinn. I still think that Thompson is going to do better in these polls that are showing him getting just 25% of the African-American vote. And if the Asian-American vote is 10% on primary day, John Liu could get more than the 5% he's getting in my ItCH poll.

Let's turn to the race for City Comptroller – where there seems to be a big difference between the Siena poll and the Quinnipiac poll. Either Eliot Spitzer has a 15-point lead (Siena) or it's tied (Quinnipiac). But Before we throw all pollsters into the garbage can, let's take a closer look at Spitzer's numbers. The Siena poll has him at 50% while the Q poll has him at 46%. That's pretty similar. Scott Stringer's numbers are the big difference. Siena has him at 35% while he's at 46% in the Q poll. But pollsters tell us to focus at the top number.

Most of the polls in the race this summer have had Spitzer hovering right around or slightly above 50%. While that means Spitzer needs just a little bit more support to win, how many voters at this point don't already have an opinion about him? If Spitzer was the incumbent in the campaign, experts would be saying he should be anxious. Anyone who expects the former Luv Guv to run away with this race is probably mistaken – but Stringer is still going to have to do a lot of work to catch him.

A quick programming note: besides covering the races throughout the weekend on NY1, we're not taking Labor Day off. I'll have my ItCH – and there will be "Road to City Hall" at 7 p.m. and 10 p.m. on Monday.


Bob Hardt

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Connect with the ItCH

• Get an e-mail each day when the ItCH is published by subscribing to our ItCH alert.
• Follow Bob Hardt on Twitter @bobhardt.
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