Theories Emerge Over Latest H1N1 Outbreak
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Experts at the Centers for Disease Control say H1N1 flu activity appears to be down all over the country, except in New York, New Jersey and part of New England, prompting many in the medical community to offer new theories as to why. NY1's Kafi Drexel filed the following report.If you are sick with flu now, health officials say it's most likely H1N1. That's because it would be very unusual for seasonal flu to still be widespread at this time of the year.
"We are still seeing a lot of viruses that are being tested in our lab and they are not coming back as regular, seasonal influenza viruses almost all of them at this point are the new virus," said Dr. Scott Harper, an epidemiologist for the New York City Department of Health. "Even as short as three or four weeks ago, that wasn't the case. We were seeing more seasonal influenza viruses but much fewer now."
Health officials say they aren't sure why so much flu activity seems to be centered in Queens, and why it's continuing at an elevated rate.
Some experts say it may be because of how flu behaves in general.
"It is actually a local illness. Outbreaks of influenza occur locally and peak and then subside in patterns that can differ from region to region of the country," said Dr. Anne Moscona of New York Presbyterian/Weill Cornell Medical Center. "What we are seeing now is a peaking of the influenza activity within this region."
Health officials say while Queens seems to be the epicenter of the bug, that doesn't mean other parts of the city are immune.
"It may just be that it hasn't spread to other boroughs at that degree yet, and so we are certainly watching it increase in the Bronx and Brooklyn so it may be that we see it increase in other boroughs too," said Harper.
As far as activity finally dropping in New York, doctors say the best gauge for that may be to look at how basic flu behaves.
"If we can expect this influenza to follow the pattern of seasonal influenzas, then we might expect an overall four to eight week period in which we are going to be seeing it," said Moscona. "That said, there are several factors that can shorten the duration of a peak of influenza and one of them is the temperature. If the temperature warms up and stays there, there might be a decrease in activity."
Flu experts say the virus doesn't do well in hot weather, which is another reason New Yorkers may want to look forward to more warm days ahead.