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NY1 Exclusive Poll: Weiner Could Make Democratic Primary A Dead Heat

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An exclusive NY1 poll shows Rep. Anthony Weiner's reluctance to jump into the Mayor's race hasn't really hurt him with voters. Our poll shows Weiner and City Comptroller Bill Thompson are tied with 28 percent each in a hypothetical Democratic Primary matchup. A plurality of voters, 31 percent, is undecided. Meanwhile, both Democrats easily lose to Mayor Bloomberg, who has an approval rating of 65 percent.

POLL RESULTS

1. If the Democratic Primary for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Bill Thompson, Anthony Wiener, Tony Avella, for whom would you vote?

ResponseMayJanuary
Thompson28%22%
Weiner28%31%
Avella4%4%
Other1%
Won't vote7%6%
Not sure31%36%
Refuse1%2%

2. If the General Election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Bill Thompson, the Democratic candidate and Michael Bloomberg, the Republican & Independent candidate, for whom would you vote?

ResponseMayJanuary
Thompson31%32%
Bloomberg47%45%
Won't vote3%4%
Not sure17%19%
Refuse2%1%

3. If the General Election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Anthony Wiener, the Democratic candidate and Michael Bloomberg, the Republican & Independent candidate, for whom would you vote?

ResponseMayJanuary
Weiner32%36%
Bloomberg47%43%
Won't vote4%4%
Not sure17%16%
Refuse1%1%

4. If the Democratic Primary for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Bill Thompson, and Tony Avella, for whom would you vote?

Thompson45%
Avella12%
Other0%
Won't vote8%
Not sure34%
Refuse1%

5. In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job Michael Bloomberg is doing as Mayor?

ResponseMayJanuaryOctober
Approve65%64%69%
Disapprove26%29%21%
Not sure9%7%9%
Refuse0%1%1%

6. In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job Bill Thompson is doing as City Comptroller?

ResponseMayJanuary
Approve49%48%
Disapprove12%10%
Not sure38%41%
Refuse1%1%


Here are the findings of NY1 pollster Mickey Blum:

If Weiner stays in the race, the Democratic Primary contest could be a nailbiter. Four months out, the two top contenders are tied at 28 percent apiece.

The winner in the Primary is “not sure” with 31% of Democratic voters unsure about their choice in the Primary. Councilman Tony Avella is still at only 4%. In addition to the 31 % undecided, another 7% say they won’t be voting in the primary.

No news is good news for the Mayor. The Mayor stays on top, the other candidates slip slightly, and approvals stay where they were.

So far there is no evidence that the money the Mayor has spent on advertising has made a difference, but then the Mayor only needs to keep the margin where it is and his approval where it is.

The Mayor seems poised for a third term, even if is still just below 50% against both.

Methodology:

The telephone poll of a random sample of 595 registered New York City voters was conducted for NY1 by Baruch College Survey Research on May 12th through the 16th. It has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points. A total of 397 Democrats were polled for the questions on the Democratic Primary. Those questions have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

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