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NY1 Exclusive Poll: 2009 Mayoral Race Preview

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An exclusive NY1 poll shows that while Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s popularity rating remains high, one of his Democratic challengers, Rep. Anthony Weiner, is within striking distance in the mayoral race.


POLL RESULTS

1. If the General Election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Bill Thompson, the Democrat and Michael Bloomberg, the independent, for whom would you vote?

Thompson32%
Bloomberg45%
Won’t Vote4%
Not Sure19%

2. If the General Election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Anthony Weiner, the Democrat and Michael Bloomberg, the Independent, for whom would you vote?

Weiner36%
Bloomberg43%
Won’t Vote4%
Not Sure16%

3. If the Democratic Primary for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Bill Thompson, Anthony Weiner, Tony Avella, for whom would you vote?

Thompson22%
Weiner31%
Avella4%
Won’t Vote6%

4. In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job Michael Bloomberg is doing as Mayor?

Approve64%
Disapprove29%
Not Sure7%


HORSERACE: Road to City Hall: Mayor 2009

• Nine months before the 2009 NYC Mayoral Election, incumbent Michael Bloomberg leads his two top potential opponents in his quest for a third term, but the Mayor does not top the crucial 50% mark against either.

• The fact that the Mayor is not at 50% is surprising, given his high approval ratings and his 2005 landslide victory.

• Mayor Mike Bloomberg leads Comptroller Bill Thompson 45% to 32%, with 19% not sure and 4 % saying they won’t vote. The Mayor leads Congressman Anthony Weiner by only 7 points, 43% to 36%, with 16% not sure and 4 % not voting.

• In the Democratic Primary contest, the race is far from decided, with a plurality (36%) of Democratic voters unsure about their support. At this point, Anthony Weiner leads at 31% , with Thompson at 22%, and Councilman Tony Avella at only 4%. In addition to the 36% undecided, another 6% of Democrats say they won’t bother to vote in the democratic Primary. The indecision is not surprising given that the votes do not know the Democratic contenders well enough to have opinions of them.

Mayoral Candidate Approvals

Bloomberg

• Mayor gets approval from 64% of city voters, down from the 69% in October 2008 and down from his all time high of 75%, but still high

• 29% currently disapprove of the Mayor’s performance, compared to 21% who disapproved in October.

• All groups still like Mike, even if not quite as much as before. As has been true throughout his second term, Mayor Bloomberg has across the board majority approval.

• The Mayor does best among the elderly, among white voters, Jewish voters, voters with a college education, wealthy voters and Manhattan and Queens voters.

Thompson

• Comptroller Bill Thompson gets high marks from those who know him, 48% approve and only 10% disapprove, but 41% are not sure, generally a sign that they are unfamiliar with a candidate.

No group disapproves of the Comptroller, with few major differences by subgroup, but Thompson does best among highly educated voters and black voters.


Methodology

The margin of error is +/-4.3%

This telephone poll of a random sample of 705 New York City residents (including 535 registered voters), was conducted for NY1 by Baruch College Survey Research, from January 20-25, 2009.

Questionnaire development and analysis by Micheline Blum and Douglas Muzzio of Baruch College, School of Public Affairs.

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