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NY1 Poll: Clinton, Giuliani Would Dominate State Presidential Vote

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An exclusive NY1 poll finds that both Senator Hillary Clinton and former mayor Rudolph Giuliani would clean up the primary competition in a presidential race in New York State.

Head-to-head in a potential general election matchup, Clinton would beat Giuliani by 14 percentage points (53 to 39) in New York State, according to the poll.

Should Mayor Michael Bloomberg enter the presidential race, poll results show he would finish a distant third to Clinton and Giuliani in a three-way contest in New York.

The poll also shows that a plurality of New Yorkers aren’t sure how they feel about the state budget. Thirty-four percent approve of the fiscal plan compared to 27 percent who say they’re against it.

Following are the poll results along with comments by NY1 pollster Mickey Blum.

1. DEMOCRATS ONLY: If the Democratic primary for president were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John Edwards, Bill Richardson, Joe Biden and Chris Dodd, for whom would you vote?

CANDIDATENY STATENY CITY
Clinton49%652%
Obama17%20%
Edwards11%9%
Richardson2%1%
Biden3%2%
Dodd1%1%
Other1%0%
Not voting3%3%
Not sure/Refused14%12%


2. REPUBLICANS ONLY: If the Republican primary for president were being held today, and the candidates were Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Sam Brownback and Tommy Thompson, for whom would you vote?

CANDIDATERESPONSE
Giuliani56%
McCain15%
Romney5%
Brownback1%
Thompson3%
Other1%
Not voting4%
Not sure/Refused16%


3. If the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani, the Republican, for whom would you vote?

CANDIDATENY STATENY CITY
Clinton53%70%
Giuliani39%24%
Other0%0%
Not voting3%3%
Not sure/Refused5%3%


4. If the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, the Democrat and John McCain, the Republican, for whom would you vote?

CANDIDATENY STATENY CITY
Clinton53%72%
McCain37%21%
Other1%0%
Not voting4%3%
Not sure/Refused5%4%


5. If the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were
Barack Obama, the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani, the Republican, for whom would you vote?


CANDIDATENY STATENY CITY
Obama48%59%
Giuliani42%33%
Other1%1%
Not voting3%2%
Not sure/Refused7%5%


6. If the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat and John McCain, the Republican, for whom would you vote?

CANDIDATENY STATENY CITY
Obama50%66%
McCain35%21%
Other1%1%
Not voting4%3%
Not sure/Refused10%8%


7. If the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, Rudy Giuliani, the Republican, and Michael Bloomberg the Independent, for whom would you vote?

CANDIDATENY STATENY CITY
Clinton46%60%
Giuliani32%16%
Bloomberg14%19%
Other0%0%
Not voting3%2%
Not sure/Refused5%3%


8. In general, do you approve or disapprove of the new budget passed by the New York State legislature?

CANDIDATENY STATENY CITY
Approve34%32%
Disapprove27%22%
Not sure/Refused39%46%



POLL ANALYSIS

  • In the Democratic Primary, Senator Clinton is N.Y. State Democrats’ clear choice in the Democratic Primary, with more support (49%) than all other candidates combined. Senator Obama comes in second at 17% and Edwards is third at 11%. Hillary’s support among New York State Democrats is both wide and deep; she wins easily in all regions and among all demographic groups. Senator Clinton is still ahead of Senator Obama among black voters by 20 points. Clinton does best among the young voters (63%).

  • In the Republican Primary, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani is the choice of 56% of Republican voters in the Republican Primary, beating John McCain by 41 points (15%). Giuliani wins the primary among all demographic groups and in all regions.

  • In the General Election, New York remains a blue state with either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama as the Democratic nominee. Hillary beats Rudy Giuliani by 14 points and John McCain by 16 points. Barack Obama beats Rudy Giuliani statewide by 6 points and defeats John McCain by 15 points. Rudy is viewed favorably by the state overall 55%, but only 15% of black voters (compared to 62% of white voters) and only 44% of NYC voters give the city’s former mayor a thumbs up (vs. 61% in the rest of the state).

  • Mayor Michael Bloomberg is considered unlikely to enter the presidential race if the other formidable New Yorkers are the eventual nominees of their parties, and at 14% he hardly makes a dent in the support of either Hillary Clinton (46%) or Rudy Giuliani (32%) in a 3-way contest, and takes equally from both.

  • Regarding the state budget, a plurality of state voters (39%) are not sure how they feel about the budget. A third (34%) approve and 27% disapprove. Voters of all groups hare divided in their approval and disapproval of the budget, and all have large numbers who are undecided.

    METHODOLOGY

    This poll was conducted from April 4 through April 7, 2007, among 1,013 New York State registered voters, including 496 registered Democratic voters (with a margin of error of +/-4.5%); 274 registered Republicans (with a margin of error of +/-6%) and 500 New York City registered voters (with a margin of error of +/-4.5%).
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