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NY1/Newsday Poll Shows Bloomberg Trouncing Ferrer ¿ And Giuliani, Dinkins And Koch

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A new NY1/Newsday poll shows Mayor Michael Bloomberg with a massive lead over his Democratic challenger, Fernando Ferrer among likely voters — 60 percent to 28 percent.

The poll also shows that in head-to-head match-ups Bloomberg would handily beat former Mayors Giuliani, Dinkins and Koch in head-to-head Election Day match-ups as well as his own Police Commissioner, Ray Kelly.

  • Michael Bloomberg trounces Fernando Ferrer in the contest for mayor by what may well be a record margin of victory, as the mayor currently holds a 32-point lead.

  • If the election were held today Bloomberg would receive 60% versus only 28% for Ferrer.

  • Bloomberg’s lead over Ferrer has increased by 20 points since the September primary.

  • Bloomberg wins among every group other than Hispanic voters, and in every borough other than the Bronx.

  • Bloomberg’s approval is an astounding 67% among all registered voters (72 percent among likely voters) ÷ compared to 64% among registered voters in September.

  • Bloomberg has the approval of every demographic subgroup, including 65% of black registered voters.

    General Election: 606 Likely GE voters MoE=+/-4%
    In the Ferrer-Bloomberg match-up, the mayor has increased his lead among likely voters from 12 percentage points in September to 32 points now.
    Bloomberg has the support of almost every group in his bid for re-election. If the election were held today Bloomberg would receive 60% versus only 28% for Ferrer.

    While Bloomberg continues to receive his strongest support where it would be expected - getting three fourths of the vote of white voters (72%), rich voters (73%), Jewish voters (75%), older voters (74%) - he has also achieved solid support among less expected groups, including registered Democrats (53%), low income voters (53% of those with incomes under $30,000), and even black voters (51%). While Ferrer led Bloomberg among black voters by a slim margin in September, that lead had been narrowing throughout the year. Ferrer’s stronger lead among low-income New Yorkers has also now disappeared. Only Hispanic voters (58% FF) and Bronx voters (51% FF) are still in Ferrer’s column.

    Approval: 1,102 Registered Voters MoE= +/-3%

    The mayor’s approval rating is now 67% among registered voters ÷ his highest ever - with all groups having a positive view of the mayor’s performance.

    While Bloomberg does best among whites (76%), Jews (76%), Manhattanites (69%), and the wealthy (82% ) as expected, he also does well again among much less expected groups including blacks (65%), women (66%), the young (64%), and the poor (59%). Only Hispanics give the mayor less than majority support — but even they are positive at 46% approval versus 35% disapproval.

    The Campaign

  • Voters don’t hold the mayor’s millions against him, and they don’t think that the money made the difference.

  • Voters say their view of Bloomberg has not been affected by the amount of money he spent on his campaign, and most don’t believe the outcome of the mayoral contest would be different even if Ferrer had $100 million to spend on his campaign.

  • Voters say they have been most influenced by the news media ÷ both newspapers and television coverage ÷ in following the mayoral campaign. Only 3% say they have been influenced most by campaign ads.

    606 Likely GE voters: MoE=+/-4%

    Bloomberg’s spending has not hurt him with voters.
    Three-fourths (76%) of likely voters say that their views of Michael Bloomberg have not changed based on the millions he has spent on this campaign. At least 2/3 of every demographic group agrees. Only 16% think less of the mayor for spending so much. Even a majority of Ferrer voters (53%) say Bloomberg’s campaign spending has not made a difference to what they think of him.

    Even a $100 million difference in what Ferrer could spend on his campaign would not make a difference in the outcome.

    Most likely voters (58%) think the outcome of this election will not be due to the fact that Ferrer did not have $100 million to spend. Only among Ferrer voters is there a majority (68%) who think that if Ferrer had $100 to spend on his campaign, it would alter the outcome of this year’s mayoral race.

    Most likely voters say they were influenced by TV coverage (38%) or newspaper coverage (37%) of the campaign.

    All groups claim the most influential sources of information about the campaign have been the news media - both print and broadcast.

    Hypothetical Match-Ups:

  • Michael Bloomberg would handily defeat former Mayors Rudolph Giuliani, David Dinkins and Ed Koch, as well as Police Commissioner Ray Kelly, if any of the four were to run against him.

  • Giuliani, the most recent of the former mayors, does the best against Bloomberg, but is still no match for the current mayor.

  • In a hypothetical Giuliani-Bloomberg match-up, the current mayor has a convincing 20-point lead.

    If the election were held today, and Rudy Giuliani was Michael Bloomberg’s opponent, Bloomberg would get 54% of the vote to Giuliani’s 34%. Bloomberg would win among most demographic groups, with his strongest support against Giuliani coming from black voters (71%) Jewish voters (66%), older voters (64%), those with a post grad education (66%) and Manhattanites (68%). However, Hispanics (49%) and the young (52%) would choose Giuliani over Bloomberg.

  • In a Dinkins-Bloomberg match-up, Bloomberg wins by a resounding 41 points.

    Michael Bloomberg would defeat David Dinkins 67% to 26%, if that contest were held today. Bloomberg would do best among white voters, wealthy voters, older voters, and Jewish voters. The only group choosing Dinkins over Bloomberg are black voters (55%).

  • In a contest with former mayor (and current NY1 “Wise Guy”) Ed Koch, Michael Bloomberg would win by a convincing 31 points. Michael Bloomberg would defeat Ed Koch by 60% to 29%. No group would give Koch the edge over Bloomberg.

  • As the only one of the hypothetical opponents who has never been mayor, or even held elective office, Police Commissioner Ray Kelly fares least well against Michael Bloomberg in a contest for mayor.

    While Kelly gets more credit than the mayor for the drop in crime, he would be no match for Bloomberg in a contest for the city’s top job. Bloomberg would get 73% to 15% for Kelly. Mayor Bloomberg would win a majority among every subgroup against Kelly.

    One last thought: It is unlikely that Bloomberg will actually win by 32 points, because the margin in this poll and others will depress turnout. Ferrer's voters are more likely to show up, as is true of all challengers. It is particularly likely because there is an issue of ethnic pride involved. Nevertheless, it will be a blowout.
    Poll Questions:

    1. If the general election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Fernando Ferrer, the Democrat, Michael Bloomberg, the Republican, and Tom Ognibene, the Conservative, for whom would you vote? Toward which candidate are you leaning?

    Ferrer 28%
    Bloomberg 60%
    Ognibene 1%
    Other 1%
    Won’t vote 0%
    NS/Refused 10%

    2. In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job Michael Bloomberg is doing as mayor?

    Approve 67%
    Disapprove 19%
    NS/Refused 14%

    3. If the general election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Police Commissioner Ray Kelly and Michael Bloomberg, for whom would you vote?

    Kelly 15%
    Bloomberg 73%
    Other 1%
    Won’t vote 5%
    NS/Refused 6%

    4. If the general election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Rudy Giuliani and Michael Bloomberg, for whom would you vote?

    Giuliani 34%
    Bloomberg 54%
    Other 1%
    Won’t vote 6%
    NS/Refused 5%

    5. If the general election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were David Dinkins and Michael Bloomberg, for whom would you vote?

    Dinkins 26%
    Bloomberg 67%
    Other 1%
    Won’t vote 3%
    NS/Refused 3%

    6. If the general election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Koch and Michael Bloomberg, for whom would you vote?

    Koch 29%
    Bloomberg 60%
    Other 1%
    Won’t vote 4%
    NS/Refused 6%

    7. Do you think it would make a difference to the outcome of the mayoral election if Fernando Ferrer had $100 million to spend on his campaign?

    Yes 36%
    No 58%
    NS/Refused 6%

    8. Does the amount of money Michael Bloomberg is spending on his campaign make you think more of him, less of him, or not make a difference to what you think of him?

    More of him 6%
    Less of him 16%
    No difference 76%
    NS/Refused 2%

    9. Which of the following sources of information about the mayoral campaign has influenced you most?

    Newspaper coverage 37%
    TV coverage 38%
    Campaign ads 3%
    Direct mail 2%
    Radio 6%
    NS/Refused 13%

    Methodology

    This telephone poll of a random sample of 1,102 New York City registered voters (including an oversample of Hispanic voters), yielding 606 likely voters, was conducted for NY1 News and Newsday by Blum & Weprin Associates, Inc. from October 30 - November 4, 2005.

    The registered voter sample was based on an RDD design which draws numbers from all existing telephone exchanges in the five boroughs of New York City, giving all phone numbers, listed and unlisted, a proportionate chance of being included. Respondents were selected by a method intended to insure a correct balance and were then screened for voter registration.

    The oversample of Hispanic voters was drawn from previously identified Hispanic households based on previous RDD samples. Respondents were offered the option of a Spanish questionnaire.

    The estimated average sample tolerance for data from the survey is +/- 3% at the 95% confidence level for the 1102 registered voters, +/- 4% for the 606 likely voters, +/-6.5% for the 231 Hispanic registered voters, and +/-9.5% for the 108 likely Hispanic voters. That is, the chances are about 19 out of 20 that if all households with telephones were surveyed with the same questionnaire, the results of the complete census would not be found to deviate from the poll findings for registered voters by more than 3 points (4 points for likely voters). Sampling error for subgroups is higher. Differences among subgroups not noted above should not be used.

    Sampling is only one source of error. Other sources of error may include question wording, question order and interviewer effects.
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