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NY1 Exclusive: New Poll Shows Quinn In Front Of Other Potential Democratic 2013 Mayor Candidates

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The field in this year's mayor's race has shifted in recent months, with some candidates dropping out or switching parties, and several others jumping in, but an exclusive NY1/Marist College poll shows one candidate is now firmly out in front on the Democratic side. NY1's Bobby Cuza filed the following report.

City Council Speaker Christine Quinn isn't yet an officially declared candidate in the 2013 race for mayor. But according to the latest NY1/Marist College poll, 37 percent of registered Democrats like her for mayor, versus just 13 percent for former city comptroller William Thompson and 12 percent for public advocate Bill de Blasio.

They’re trailed by current comptroller John Liu and former Brooklyn City Councilman Sal Albanese, with 26 percent undecided.

"Right now, she’s ahead of her likely rivals by almost 3-to-1," said Lee Mirignoff, an NY1/Marist College pollster. "So she’s the only one right now of these Democratic candidates who can actually see the end zone."

Among Republicans, former MTA Chairman Joseph Lhota is out in front with 20 percent support. That number is compared to 8 percent for George McDonald, founder of the Doe Fund; 5 percent for supermarket mogul John Catsimatidis; and 4 percent for publisher Tom Allon.

Former Bronx Borough President Adolfo Carrion and Rev. A.R. Bernard lag behind. But 55 percent of those polled are undecided, and with the exception of Lhota, most registered Republicans have either never heard of or have no impression of any of the candidates.

"Joe Lhota seems to have the early lead over the potential rivals, but that is about as fluid a primary as you could imagine at this point," Mirignoff said.

In addition, every Democrat beats Lhota in a hypothetical head-to-head. Quinn beats him by 46 points. Even little-known Sal Albanese trounces Lhota, 52-21.

Lhota does have the support of former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, under whom he served as deputy mayor. But while helpful in a Republican primary, 46 percent of overall polled voters said a Giuliani endorsement makes them less likely to support that candidate.

The same goes for a Bloomberg endorsement. 44 percent of those polled said it would hurt. Which means that Quinn, a close Bloomberg ally, may want to keep her distance if she wants to keep these poll numbers up.

Selected Poll Results

Below are selected results from the latest NY1/Marist poll on the candidates and potential candidates in the 2013 race for mayor.

Among registered Democratic voters in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:
• 37% Christine Quinn
• 13% Bill Thompson
• 12% Bill de Blasio
• 9% John Liu
• 2% Sal Albanese
• 1% Other
• 26% Undecided
Poll results have a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percent.

What are New York City Democrats’ impressions of these mayoral aspirants?
• 65% have a favorable opinion of Quinn, while 17% have an unfavorable one. 18% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her.
• 49% have a favorable impression of Thompson, while 20% do not. 31% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
• 48% of New York City Democrats have a positive view of de Blasio, while 20% have an unfavorable one. 32% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
• When it comes to Liu, 43% have a favorable impression of him while 27% have an unfavorable one. 30% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
• 26% of Democrats have a positive opinion of Albanese while 20% have an unfavorable view of him. 54% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
Poll results have a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percent.

Among registered Republicans in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Republican primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:
• 20% Joe Lhota
• 8% George McDonald
• 5% John Catsimatidis
• 4% Tom Allon
• 3% Adolfo Carrion
• 2% A.R. Bernard
• 3% Other
• 55% Undecided
Poll results have a margin of error of +/- 7.5 percent.

What are New York City Republicans' impressions of these mayoral aspirants?
• 42% of GOP voters think well of Lhota, while 12% have an unfavorable opinion of him. 46% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
• 30% have a favorable view of Businessman John Catsimatidis, while 14% have an unfavorable one. 56% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
• When it comes to former Bronx Borough President Adolfo Carrion, 20% perceive him positively while 21% do not. 59% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
• Advocate George McDonald is viewed well by 18% of Republicans citywide. 17%, however, have an unfavorable impression of him. 65% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
• Just 16% say they have a positive opinion of Manhattan Media publisher Allon. This compares with 17% who have an unfavorable view of him. 67% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
• Only 12% think well of Reverend A.R. Bernard. 18% have an unfavorable opinion of the candidate, and 70% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
Poll results have a margin of error of +/- 7.5 percent.


When it comes to November’s general election, how do the candidates fare in head-to-head matchups?
Among New York City registered voters:
• Quinn -- 64% -- outpaces Lhota -- 18%. 18% are undecided.
• If Thompson were to face-off against Lhota, Thompson -- 61% -- surpasses Lhota -- 19%. 20% are undecided.
• When de Blasio and Lhota square off, 60% back de Blasio compared with 18% for Lhota. 22% are undecided.
• 56% are for Liu while 20% are behind Lhota. 23% are undecided.
• In a race between Albanese and Lhota, 52% support Albanese compared with 21% for Lhota. 27% are undecided.
If Adolfo Carrion decided to run on an independent line, how would the race shape up?
Among New York City registered voters:
• Quinn has the support of 59% to 17% for Lhota. Carrion receives 8%, and 17% are undecided.
Poll results have a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percent.

Former Mayors Could Do More Harm than Good in General Election, But…
• A candidate endorsement by Mayor Bloomberg may not bolster that candidate’s prospects. If Bloomberg were to endorse a candidate, 36% of the electorate would be more likely to vote for that candidate while 44% would be less likely to vote for him or her. 14% report Bloomberg’s endorsement would make no difference to their vote, and 7% are unsure.
• What if former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani were to endorse a candidate? While Giuliani’s backing would do little to bolster such a candidate in the general election, it could pay dividends in the Republican primary.
• Among New York City registered voters, 38% would be more likely to vote for a candidate backed by Giuliani while 46% would be less likely to vote for that person. Nine percent report it would make little difference to their vote, and 6% are unsure.
• However, among Republicans citywide, 71% would be more inclined to support a candidate who receives Giuliani’s stamp of approval. 17% would be less likely to cast their ballot for that candidate, and 9% say it wouldn’t matter one way or the other. Two percent are unsure.
Poll results have a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent.

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